The rise of the Independents

Last week, the Oregonian reported that Democratic voter registration has surged in 2008. As of April 25th, there are 826,176 Democratic voters in Oregon -- nearly 70,000 more than at the end of 2007.

One story that has largely been missed, however, is the growth of the Independent Party of Oregon.

The party has catapulted past the Pacific Greens and Libertarians to become the third largest party in the state, adding 17,229 members since it was founded in January, 2007.

Although the number of Independents is still small compared to the major political parties, it's growth (6,028 new members) is second only to the Democratic party during 2008, and more people have switched from another party to Independent than to Republican (4,750 versus 4548).

Moreover, the Independent Party is the only political party that has not lost ground to the Democrats in 2008.

Though 948 Independents have re-registered as Democrats in 2008, 1037 Democrats have re-registered as Independents. By contrast, the Greens have lost more than 1,800 members to the Democrats, and the Republicans more than 12,000.

The Independent Party has had some success in fielding credible candidates. Former Eugene Mayor, Jim Torrey, registered as an Independent prior to running in a non-partisan race to reclaim his seat against incumbent, Kitty Piercy. Torrey has broken fundraising records, outraising Piercy by nearly 3-1 heading into the May Primary. Former NEA Chair, John Frohnmayer, scion of a well-connected family has received high marks in his Independent bid for US Senate.

Third party movements are very difficult to build. The last serious and sustained third party to emerge in the United States was the Republican Party, which grew out of the collapse of the Whigs in the 1850's. However, if there was ever a year for Independents to emerge as a force in politics, 2008 might be it.

44 percent of legislative races, including 8 out of 15 in the Oregon Senate, will not be contested by one or the other major parties in November. Neither will the race for Attorney General. This opens up opportunities for 2-candidate general election races between Independents and Republicans or Independents and Democrats. If the party is able to recruit candidates of the stature and caliber of Torrey and Frohnmayer in some of those races, it is conceivable that they may elect some members to the Oregon legislature.