Obama v. Clinton May be Close In Oregon

Barack Obama made four campaign stops in Oregon this week, with a reported 13,000 in Portland’s Memorial Colsium where Gov. Bill Richardson endorsed him, a well-attended forum in Salem, and large turn-outs at Mac Court and Medford. In January polling by Riley Research, Clinton led Obama 36% to 28% among registered Dems. Even with the crowds, the Register Guard reports that the Oregon Democratic primary race may be close.

Oregon’s demographics may portend a close race, said Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts. “We have strong liberal pockets like Portland and Eugene, more moderate Democrats in the suburbs, and some blue-collar and working-class Democrats who are amenable to Clinton’s campaign,” he said. “You throw it all together and it’s a fairly competitive race.”

Pollster Mark Riley says his polls in February show Obama leading Clinton among likely women primary voters and Obama leading McCain in a general match-up.

Oregon gets 65 delegates to the Denver nominating convention-- 52 pledged, 12 supers and 1 add-on. Oregon has 7 electoral college votes.

UPDATE: Register-Guard website now requesting login information: here is the article:
Oregon Democrats anguish over choice

By Jeff Wright

The Register-Guard

Published: March 23, 2008 12:00AM
Story photo and/or graphic

Carolyn Kaster/AP
Supporters of Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. and Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., cheer as Clinton walks past during Scranton St. Patrick's Day Parade in Scranton, Pa., Saturday, March 15, 2008.
Story Tools

* E-mail Story
* Printable Version
* © Info

Font size:
Decrease
Reset
Increase

SPONSORED BY:

Advertisement

Clover Earl of Eugene marched down to the Lane County Elections Office and changed her party affiliation from Independent to Democrat so that she can cast her ballot in the Democratic presidential primary in support of ... of ... whom?

“I’ve not decided,” she confessed with a sheepish smile.

“In regard to personality and charisma, I love Obama,” she said. “But it takes more than charisma, and Hillary certainly has the experience.”

Earl’s dilemma is shared by thousands of other Democrats in Lane County and across Oregon excited by the prospect of voting for what could be the first woman or first black to win the White House.

Many are passionately committed to their candidate, be it Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama. But others, such as Kori Kunz, are still struggling to decide.

“I would really like to see a woman president, but I think Obama is more charismatic and would have more cachet abroad,” she said outside the Eugene Public Library. “I’m a terrible decision maker.”

Rose Kelsch suffers no such ambivalence, calling herself “a hard-core Hillary” supporter. Though she is only 26, Kelsch

said she worries that this may be her only chance to vote for a viable woman candidate for president.

“If Hillary Clinton can’t win it, I don’t know who can,” Kelsch said. “I think it will be decades before we see someone with her leadership and charisma.”

Stu Adler, a former Lane County Democratic Party vice chairman, uses similar words to explain his enthusiastic support for Obama. At age 73, Adler said he’s plenty old enough to remember the pain of civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination, and the sense then that momentum in bringing Americans together had been lost.

“In many ways, Obama reminds me of Martin Luther King,” Adler said. “He’s facing up to the race issues in this country and trying to help us heal — that’s refreshing. There’s almost a mythic thing going on here.”

The candidates’ intense competition for Oregon’s 65 convention delegates is likely to keep Oregon in the national spotlight through the state’s May 20 primary election. Obama, of course, dropped in on Eugene, Salem and Portland on Friday, as well as Medford on Saturday, and many assume both he and Clinton will visit again before early May, when Oregon voters will start receiving their ballots in the mail.

Oregon’s demographics may portend a close race, said Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts.

“We have strong liberal pockets like Portland and Eugene, more moderate Democrats in the suburbs, and some blue-collar and working-class Democrats who are amenable to Clinton’s campaign,” he said. “You throw it all together and it’s a fairly competitive race.”

Obama is generating more buzz, “but that doesn’t mean he necessarily wins the primary,” Hibbitts said. A slight mathematical victory in Oregon may be less important than the psychological benefit that comes with winning, or doing better than expected, in such a late-voting state.

Mike Riley of Riley Research Associates in Portland said he is amazed at how Obama has moved from relative obscurity to front-­runner status in just a matter of months. As recently as January, polling by Riley’s firm showed Clinton leading Obama among Oregon Democrats, 36 percent to 28 percent.

In his most recent polling a month ago, Riley found that Obama leads presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain 46 percent to 38 percent should they meet in Oregon’s general election — the exact differential by which McCain in turn leads Clinton in a heads-up contest.

Riley’s polling found that Republicans were about twice as likely to cross party lines and vote for Obama than they were to cross and vote for Clinton (17 percent vs. 8 percent). Against McCain, Obama garners more support from female voters (48 percent) than does Clinton (42 percent).

It’s those cold political calculations that have prompted state Rep. Phil Barnhart, D-Eugene, to throw his support to Obama. Barnhart said Obama “is going to have coattails — he will help people win races further down the ticket” because of all the new registered Democrats he’s bringing to the polls.

Barnhart said he senses that Clinton supporters ultimately will support Obama if he wins the Democratic nomination.

But he said he fears that many Obama supporters, especially young voters, “just won’t vote in the general election if he’s not the candidate.”

State Rep. Chris Edwards, D-Eugene, an Obama supporter, responded with a long pause when asked how easy or hard it would be for him to endorse Clinton should she win the party’s nomination. “I’m going to pass on that question right now,” he said.

State Sen. Vicki Walker, D-Eugene, said she could support Obama but really hopes her first-choice candidate, Clinton, will prevail. Walker recites public policy issues, not gender, in explaining her support for Clinton.

“I like her health care plan — she wants it for everyone — and her support for public education, from full funding for prekindergarten to tax credits for families with kids in college,” Walker said. “She’s right on the issues.”

Walker, a candidate for Oregon Secretary of State, said she relates to Clinton as a fellow female politician, but doesn’t consider that to be the defining reason for her support. “She does bring a certain tenacity and experience to the table that I find incredibly appealing,” she said.

Like other leaders in the Lane County Democratic Party, Chairman Jason Mason-Gere feels obliged to keep his preference to himself.

But he insists that local Democrats, regardless of where they fall on the Clinton-­Obama question, are jazzed about participating in a historic contest.

“People are excited about where we are as a party and that we have these choices to choose from,” he said. “People keep saying that they love being able to vote for someone instead of against someone.”

But not everyone is ga-ga about the two Democrats. Martin Ellensburg of Vida said he still views the two as a “lesser of evils” choice and feels both are too eager to end the war in Iraq prematurely.

When pressed, Ellensburg said he is leaning toward Obama. “But that’s because I grew up in Arkansas and have had my fill of Bill Clinton,” he said.

Daniel Heila of Eugene said Obama impressed him with his speech last week on race relations, but that he remains undecided between the two candidates.

“I do wish they’d both start focusing on McCain,” Heila said. “Everyone thinks that there’s automatically going to be a Democratic president, and I think that’s foolish.”