Presidental Race--Wanna Bet?

Looks like the Oregon primary will attract real presidential candidates to the state for the first time in a generation. Since all conventional wisdom is crumbling this election year, let's go to the most reliable source of election predictions: the Iowa Elections Market.

The Presidential prediction markets all show increases in futures contracts for Senator Obama for the Democratic nomination. IEM and Intrade currently show $100 Obama “contracts” trading around $74 and Clinton contracts around $22. These change hourly.

These markets depend on the “wisdom of crowds” (those of you reading this!) who search the internet for tips and facts, and then wager real money. Final results for recent elections has shown the IEM has had lower error rates than polls and pundits.

A new entry in the prediction markets is Newsfeatures It does not accept actual money and has no track record of predictive accuracy yet. But it does include some interesting wagers though:

Contract that Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention ...x$42

Contract that Either Party's convention will fail to elect a nominee on the first ballot... x$29

Contract that Obama will pick a woman as his running mate x...$27

Any bets on the Oregon Senate race for Smith’s seat? Intrade has very low volume, but folks holding Smith futures want $90 for a $100 contract and those holding a generic Democratic futures contract are asking $40.