Oregon getting bluer

The Oregon GOP has been on rocky ground in recent months. Between the IRS placing a lien on the party's assets, a debt in excess of $300,000, and serious difficulties raising money, the party that once dominated Oregon politics is in dire need of good news.

Unfortunately for Republicans, good news does not appear to be on the horizon.

According to an analysis of voter registration data by the Independent, Oregon is more Democratic than it was in 2004, and it's getting bluer. In February, 2004, the voter registration edge for Democrats was 48,003. As of February 26th, the voter registration edge is more than 80,000.

With voter registration drives just starting to kick in for the 2008 presidential election, the voter registration edge for Democrats is starting to tick up. Democratic registration has grown by 15,000 since October, while GOP registration has dropped by more than 11,000.

The growth in that differential is climbing faster in 2008 than it was in 2004. The Democratic Party has grown 500% faster between October 2007 and February 2008 than it did between October 2006 and February 2007.

Republicans are more than twice as likely to re-register as Democrats than vice-versa. Between October, '07 and February, '08, 2589 Republican voters re-registered as Democrats. During that same time period, only 1208 voters switched from Democrat to Republican.

Non-affiliated voters are nearly three times more likely to re-register as Democrats than Republicans. Between October, '07 and February, '08, 3,923 non-affiliated voters re-registered as Democrats. During that same time period, only 1,443 voters switched from non-affiliated to Republican.

2007 - 2008 partisan shifts

PARTY...........OCT 2007...........FEB 2008......GAIN/LOSS
---------------------------------------------------------
DEM..............752,888..............767,043.......... +14,155
REP...............697,339..............686,321.......... - 11,018
---------------------------------------------------------
D EDGE......... 55,549............. 80,722...........+ 25,173

2003 - 2004 partisan shifts

PARTY...........OCT 2003...........FEB 2004......GAIN/LOSS
--------------------------------------------------------
DEM..............719,984..............722,602.......... +2,618
REP...............677,343..............674,599.......... -2,744
--------------------------------------------------------
D EDGE......... 42,641............. 48,003...........+ 5,362

On top of these voter registration gains, we are also seeing a reversal of historic giving trends by lobbyists. Other than labor unions, which are traditionally large Democratic givers, the lobby has historically given more money to Republicans than Democrats. That pattern has also shifted in the Democrats favor.

All of this adds up to a possible high water year for Oregon Democrats, particularly given the difficulties the GOP has had in recruiting candidates.

Look for Republicans to circle the wagons in legislative races. Outside of Gordon Smith, who maintains a sizeable fundraising edge over his Democratic opponents; Kevin Mannix, who appears to be an early favorite to replace Darlene Hooley; and a possible pickup in Senate District 27, Ben Westlund's former seat, it looks as though it could be a lean year for Oregon Republicans.